3 surprises and 3 disappointments for the 2012 fantasy baseball season, so far.
We're about one-fourth of the way through the season so far, and at this point many fantasy owners must evaluate their draft packs and whether they'll be long-term contributers, or draft-day busts. As many will recall, several big-name players were debated at nauseam, right up to draft day, making many past stars bargains during early drafts. For those who took chances on past fantasy powerhouses, their fantasy fate largely hinges on those players' revival. Players like Carlos Beltran and Andre Either have enjoyed recent success, so their early productivity is not much of a surprise. But players, like David Wright, who had his lowest batting average since his rookie season (.254), were not viewed as fondly by owners during draft time. And for good reason. Though Wright has rebounded well and is flirting with - .400, he's currently at .399 - many others are continuing their downward trend and should get the Justin Morneau treatment on draft day. Below are some of the biggest surprises so far this season, including a couple of up-and-comers.
Three Surprises
Edwin Encarnacion 1B/3B TOR
45 G 25 R 14 HR 37 RBI .269 .910 OPS
Encarncacion is in his fourth season with the Blue Jays, and is already on pace for a career year. Like a few of his teammates, see Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, Encarnacion has seen a power surge since coming to the Blue Jays, and has hit 14 home runs in just 171 at bats so far this season. Along with his power, Encarnacion can provide help in RBI, and is poised to score a lot of runs hitting fourth in a potent Blue Jay lineup. He has 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and doesn't look to be slowing down any time soon.
Adam Dunn 1B CHW
44 G 25 R 14 HR 33 RBI .243 579 SLG
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| Adam Dunn getting walked. Courtesy of the AP. |
After a supremely dissappointing 2011 campaign, Dunn has re-emerged as one of the game's premier power hitters. He already has 14 home runs, after recording only 11 in 415 at bats last year. That is quite the improvement. Dunn signed a massive four-year $56 million contract with the White Sox after hitting 38 home runs for the Nationals in 2010. Now htat he's been in the AL for a year, he'll be more prepared for pitchers and other in-game situations. He also stands to benefit from some subpar AL Central pitching. Hitting in front of Paul Konerko doesn't hurt, either.
Gio Gonzalez SP WAS
9 GS 6-1 69 K 1.98 ERA 0.99 WHIP 11.4 K/9
Gonzalez has not failed to impress in his first year as a National after coming over in a trade last winter, beginning the season 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. I'm sure many in Washington would have been pleased with just a sub 3.50 ERA and 14 or so wins - and he may very well do that - but so far, Gonzalez looks to be a dark-horse contender for the NL Cy Young award. He has also proven that he can win with limited run support, garnering 31 victories in his past two seasons with the Athletics. Despite leaving the friendly confines of O.co Coliseum, Gonzalez has actually lowered his ERA and WHIP since coming to Washington, and is averaging a career-high 11.4 K/9 this season. His numbers may come back down to earth, but he is guaranteed to be a solid contributor, with a large upside.
Honorable Mentions:
Jake Peavy SP CHW (91 percent owned in Yahoo leagues)
9 GS 5-1 55 K 2.39 ERA 0.91 WHIP
Josh Reddick OF OAK (83 percent owned in Yahoo leagues)
43 G 28 R 11 HR 24 RBI 5 SB .272 .864 OPS
Omar Infante 2B MIA (75 percent owned in Yahoo leagues)
37 G 21 R 6 HR 20 RBI .324 .913 OPS
Three Disappointments
Albert Pujols 1B LAA
44 G 15 R 4 HR 20 RBI .213
.589 OPS
Yes. It's late May, and Albert Pujols has an OPS of .589. This is not the twilight zone, this is merely a reality of the 2012 season. King Albert's struggles have been debated by fans and baseball experts alike, and come to the joy of Cardinals fans, who have seen their team maintain success without their former leader. The Cards failed to match the Angels' bid for Pujols, and picked up Beltran as a result, at a much lower price too. So far, Beltran seems to be the better pickup as Pujols has repeated last season's early woes, hitting his first home run at the beginning of May. Besides pour power numbers, he has struggled to make contact, hitting a cool .213 entering play Thursday. The Angels would not have paid him this much if this would be his yearly outputs, so better production is nearly assured. Pujols is someone that you may want to send out a couple feeler offers for in your various fantasy leagues to see if anyone lacks the patience to wait for Albert to go on one of his famous tears once again.
Tim Lincecum SP SF
9 GS 2-4 53 K 6.04 ERA 1.6 WHIP 10.0 K/9
What a long, strange trip it's been for Tim Lincecum. His stats have been gradually declining since 2010, the year the Giants shocked everyone and beat the Rangers in the World Series, when his ERA jumped up nearly a run - from 2.48 to 3.43 - after his second of back-to-back Cy Young winning seasons in 2009. His ERA rebounded well in 2011, dropping back down to 2.74, but lacked the run support to achieve a winning record, finishing 13-14. Besides his tumultuous ERA, his strike-out rate has steadily declined from 2008 - when it was a career high of 10.5 K/9 - to just 9.1 K/9 in 2011. In the young 2012 campaign, Lincecum has put up Barry Zito-esque numbers, including a double-take worthy 6.04 ERA, a WHIP of nearly 1.6 and a career-low SO/BB ratio of 2.12. Like Pujols, Lincecum has a long and impressive track record, and could very well make an adjustment or two that makes him one of the game's best pitchers once again.
Yovani Gallardo SP MIL
9 GS 2-4 48 K 4.62 ERA 1.46 WHIP
Continuing the column's theme, Gallardo has put up career-low marks in several key categories, including ERA (4.62), WHIP (1.46) and SO/BB ratio (1.92). Like others on the disappointment list, Gallardo's skills engender enough confidence for owners to steer through his murky season, hoping to have him as a key asset on the way to a fantasy championship. I would stick with him at this point, but if he fails to put up his usual numbers, trading him is not outside the question.
Dishonorable Mentions
Eric Hosmer 1B KC (84 percent owned in Yahoo leagues)
41 G 16 R 5 HR 21 RBI .191 .593 OPS
Jimmy Rollins SS PHI (90 percent owned in Yahoo leagues)
42 G 22 R 1 HR 7 RBI 9 SB
Dan Haren SP LAA (95 percent owned in Yahoo leagues)
9 GS 1-5 45 K 4.37 ERA 1.33 WHIP
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