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30 June 2011

Adds: San Diego Pitching Staff

The Fantasy Sports Virtuoso accepts responsibility for each of his predictions, good and bad. Users seeking to voice their anger or inform me of my incompetence need only leave a comment or e-mail me at SeanDuffySD@gmail.com!


The San Diego Padres, who have been in last place in the NL West for a majority of the season, have recently overtaken the Dodgers for fourth in the division after winning seven of their last eight which includes their first home stand win this season. Though the offense has sparked the recent win streak, the pitching staff has been equally as dominant, allowing only 14 runs in their last seven wins.

This recent span of pitching dominance shouldn't surprise many, as the Padres have ranked in the top five in MLB in several different pitching statistics most of the year; including ERA, SLG%, and OPS%.

Key Pitchers: (% Owned in parentheses for players under 65 percent owned.)

Heath Bell, the often rumored to be leaving San Diego closer, has been able to put trade talk aside so far this season, compiling another All-Star caliber '11 campaign. Bell's 23 saves are tied for second best in MLB, despite the fact that the Padres are eight games below .500 and went a week without getting a save opportunity earlier this month. He followed that up with six straight save conversions over the next two weeks, allowing a mere five hits without allowing a run. Bell has only blown one save this entire season and has only allowed three ER the entire season in save opportunities. Owners or perspective owners of Bell should hope for a trade to St. Louis, probably the best location for Bell if he does end up getting traded.

Tim Stauffer - (54 percent) Stauffer has pitched outstandingly in his last five starts, showing many of critics why the righty was selected fourth overall in the 2003 draft. Going at least seven innings in each of his last five starts, Stauffer is 3-1 with 33K in 36 innings. Stauffer's is on his first win streak this season, not surprisingly.

His manager, Bud Black, analyzed Stauffer's recent success in a North County Times article:


The right-hander allowed a run in the third inning on Eric Hosmer's RBI single, but retired 13 of the last 15 hitters he faced. Stauffer threw strikes on 62 of 107 pitches.
"The efficiency factor has gone way up the last five starts," Black said of Stauffer.
Mike Adams - (34 percent) Adams is gaining fantasy traction among owners in leagues of all size for many reasons. Adams, who has been among the league leaders in holds the past two seasons, including finishing second behind teammate Luke Gregerson with 38 holds in 2010, is the likely air apparent to Heath Bell, if and when Bell is ultimately dealt. In the mean time, Adams is having an amazing season and is helping fantasy owners in three of the main five pitching statistics ( WHIP, ERA, and K). Adams is the best Padres pitcher statistically on Yahoo, compiling an ERA of 1.24, a WHIP of 0.66, and a K/BB ratio of 8.0. The scary thing for batters facing Adams, and a pleasant thought for his owners, Adams has the room for improvement, as evidence by his 0.73 ERA in 2009, which was also the year he had his career high in K/9 (10.9).

Dustin Moseley - (five percent) A bit of a stretch, and at five percent owned he's hardly a fantasy commodity, but Moseley is a strong candidate for pitch 'n' ditch duties against favorable match ups. He has an impressive ERA of 3.03, but most of his other statistics leave a lot to be desired. A 2-7 record, a below average WHIP of 1.27, and a very unimpressive K/9 ratio of 4.3 are sure to leave many potential owners skeptical.

The Padres are going on the road for ten games before the All Star break, but they have some very favorable match ups. They travel to Seattle for a weekend series that begins Friday, and pits two of MLB's worst offense against each other. Even though Seattle has played exceptionally well against the Padres and are an AL team, they are dead last in runs (277 and BA (.227). The Padres then begin their return home with a four game series in San Francisco, followed by three at Chavez Ravine, only a short trip on the I5 from San Diego.

With more consistent offensive support, several of the Padres pitchers go from pitch 'n' ditch candidates to potential fantasy assets.

28 June 2011

Pitch 'N' Ditch 6/29

The Fantasy Sports Virtuoso accepts responsibility for each of his predictions, good and bad. Users seeking to voice their anger or inform me of my incompetence need only leave a comment or e-mail me at SeanDuffySD@gmail.com!


Some of the best pitchers in MLB are schedule to start tomorrow, Wednesday June 29, and a few may be available to add in your league!

Aces Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum are just three of the great pitchers going tomorrow, none of which will be available in your free agent pool.

But there are a lot of quality pitchers going tomorrow whose %Owned are relatively low.

Here are my best bets for tomorrow:
Jordan Zimmermann @LAA- (71 percent owned) Though owned in most leagues, Zimmermann has a favorable matchup against the scoring-challenged Angels and has allowed only four runs over his last 34.1 innings pitched.

Scott Baker LAD - (58 percent owned) Baker is coming off a mediocre start at Milwaukee last time out, but his favorable home matchup against the Dodgers makes him an easy pitch 'n' ditch candidate.

Tim Stauffer KC - (52 percent owned) Stauffer and the red-hot Padres take on Bruce Chen and the pedestrian Royals in the series finale at Petco. The Royals have never won a game at Petco and don't have a favorable matchup tomorrow when they face the stingy Stauffer, who has allowed a mere three runs over his last 29 innings pitched. Stauffer has struck out 27 batters, over those 29 innings, raising his K/9 to 7.5 on the season.

Adds: Everything's Beachy

The Fantasy Sports Virtuoso accepts responsibility for each of his predictions, good and bad. Users seeking to voice their anger or inform me of my incompetence need only leave a comment or e-mail me at SeanDuffySD@gmail.com!



















Brandon Beachy, who returned from a stint on the disabled list stemming from an oblique injury suffered in May, came back last Wednesday with a dominating performance against the Blue Jays, allowing one run on four hits and two walks, while striking out 11 Toronto batters over six innings. The lone Blue Jays run came on Jose Bautista's 22nd home run this year. Beachy, who started the season with a series of successful  starts, compiling an ERA of 3.45, a WHIP of 1.08, made his second start off the disabled list at Seattle. The small, yet promising, sampling size of his starts against Toronto and at Seattle should be a sign of things to come and should put potential owners' minds to rest.

His ownership is still hovering around 50 percent, despite his hot start. I think anyone in leagues of 10+ should look into adding Beachy to their roster.



Pitching Prospects: (SD Edition) (Owned percentages)
Corey Luebke (SD LHP) Seven percent Went five solid innings in his first start of the season allowing just one hit and two walks while striking out six Braves hitters. Luebke has a K/9 ratio of 10.0, a WHIP of 0.95 and a BAA of .177.
Mike Adams (SD RHP) 33 percent - The supposedly mortal Mike Adams gave up a run against the Braves on Sunday, but the righty-reliever still has been putting up insane numbers with a WHIP of 0.65, a K/9 ratio of 9.7, and an amazing K/BB ratio of 7.6. Adams is also the likely closer in waiting if and when Heath Bell ultimately gets traded.

09 June 2011

Adds: Brian Vogelsong is a Nice Story. Capitalize On It!

The Fantasy Sports Virtuoso accepts responsibility for each of his predictions, good and bad. Users seeking to voice their anger or inform me of my incompetence need only leave a comment or e-mail me at SeanDuffySD@gmail.com!


Courtesy CBS Sports


The potential redemption of journey-man Ryan Vogelsong is sure to warm many a heart, but one shouldn't fall too in love with the 33-year-old just yet. Vogelsong, returning from an essentially insurmountable absence of nearly five years, has helped Giants fans forget about their $128 million flop, Barry Zito. He is owned in 57 percent of leagues on Yahoo! and 90 percent of ESPN leagues, numbers which are sure to  rise once fantasy skeptics know for sure that his hot start is the real deal, and that the aforementioned human home run ball machine Zito will not clog up the fifth spot in the rotation.

Though neither are certain yet, the international journeyman has been through his fair share since his his final season with the Pirates. A starting pitcher turned middle reliever turned post-Tommy John disappointment  Vogelsong has overcome a great deal since being drafted by the Giants in the fifth round of the 1998 draft.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy acknowledged Vogelsong's hard work to USA Today:

"He kept grinding to get back to the major leagues. That's one of the best stories I've seen since I've been in the game," Bochy said. "He's taking full advantage. He's pitching as well as anybody in the league, really."


Those who question Vogelsong's quick start based on lack of sampling size, should examine his starts in greater depth. Vogelsong held the Cardinals to six hits and one run over five solid innings that his offense, the lowest scoring in MLB, could not support. Likewise, Vogelsong got a tough-luck loss in Florida, only allowing one run over eight innings of work. Vogelsong was luckier in his two turns against Colorado this season, allowing one run and five hits over 14.1 innings, striking out 11 batters in the process.


With an ERA of 1.68, a WHIP of 1.04, and 7.0 K/9, Vogelsong is an easy target for comeback player of the year. Though his splits between home and away are distinct ( ERA 3.27 on the road, 0.57 at home), Vogelsong does have a very attractive schedule the next three weeks. The Giants play at Oakland, Chicago (NL), Arizona, and Detroit. Though none are easy to pitch at, the Tigers match up is the only series that Vogelsong owners really need to be worried about. But what makes Vogelsong especially attractive is his home schedule. The Giants play the Twins, Indians, Padres, and Mets. Two of which are near the bottom of baseball in runs scored, and the other two have faced recent offensive struggles. All in all, the match ups favor Vogelsong.

Peerless Prediction: 13W 140k 3.20 ERA 1.15 WHIP